Thursday, March 20, 2014

Prediction Recap & Kaggle Contest

Albany vs. Mt. St. Mary's:  Albany by 1.5
NC State vs. Xavier:  Xavier by 4
Cal Poly vs. Texas Southern:  Cal Poly by 2.5
Iowa vs. Tennessee:  Iowa by 2.5
The PM goes 2-2 in the "First Four" which is probably no better than chance.  Interestingly, it got both the 16 seed play-in games correct.   NC State outplayed Xavier, but the Iowa-Tennessee game was more competitive and could have gone either way.

I'm in Vegas with a group of friends to watch the first-round games, so posting will be light, but here's an interesting graphic showing the spread of predictions amongst the Kaggle competitors:

This is a little non-intuitive, but if the caption says "Albany beats Florida" then having the histogram to the left indicates that the predictors don't believe in that hypothesis (and vice versa).

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