Friday, March 29, 2013

Sweet Sixteen Update (Part 1)

The first half of the Sweet Sixteen games have been played, so here’s the update on the Prediction Machines thoughts:
Home
Away
Line
Pred
Delta
Result
Miami (FL) Marquette 6 3.7 -2.3
-10
Louisville Oregon 10 11.6 1.6

Ohio State Arizona 3.5 5.4 1.9
3
Indiana Syracuse 5.5 7.7 2.2
-11
Duke Michigan State 2 4.3 2.3
Kansas Michigan 2 4.9 2.9
Wichita State La Salle 4 7.6 3.6
14
Florida Florida Gulf Coast 12.5 20.2 7.7
The PM went 2-1 on betting predictions.  In its Tournament bracket, it correctly picked Marquette over Miami.  Unfortunately, in the most significant game of the night for the PM, it was very wrong on the Indiana game.  Indiana struggled all night against the Syracuse zone, and (particularly in the first half) Syracuse seemed to make every shot attempt.  Having watched Syracuse’s first two round games at San Jose, I was expecting the zone to cause Indiana more trouble than expected, but I didn’t expect Syracuse to look so good on the offensive end.  At any rate, unless something very unusual happens, that result eliminates the PM from contention in the Machine Madness Contest.  This will be the first year where the PM didn’t go into the final game with a chance to win the contest.
The Arizona-Ohio State prediction was too close to recommend a bet, but the PM ended up on the wrong side of the line there as well.   Ross’s defensive blunder on the next-to-last play of the game probably cost quite a few gamblers a payout.

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